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Financial forecasts (model) for aquaculture

Picture of abalone as display for abalone farms financial forecasts A turnkey aquaculture farm manufacturer wanted to make sure that its zero-based forecasting model was correct. They intended to provide it to the Namibian government to which they tendered to erect an 100 ton per annum abalone farm [Circa USD7m]. It is one of the most extensive financial models we ever came across.

Our assignment: The company requested our opinion on the accuracy of their farming financial model.

We remodelled the project on our proprietary financial forecast platform, from parametric modelling [von Bertalanffy growth equation, etc.] and the cohort designs [zero-based modelling], to final forecast financial statements. THe model was a combination of zero-based forecasting wherever possible and the balance parametric modelling.

Abalone spat needs 4 years to grow to market-ready size. Depending on the farm size, millions of dollars are invested into growing the spat until the first animals are ready for sale after 4 years.

We discovered that the client's farming financial model transferred a significant under-estimation of the cost of feeding the abalone spat until they become market ready animals. In this way were able to help the company to tender a more accurate, achievable financial model to the Namibian government.

Note: Although these are extracts from actual projects we completed, the only intention for reciting them is to illustrate some aspects of the value we were able to offer.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work, which is all covered by copyright, may be reproduced in any form without the written permission of the author.

Significant effort has been made to trace ownership of copyrighted material, and obtain permission(s) from them. If the copyright on any material is legitimately questioned, we are willing correct future prints of this work.
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            [HTTP_HOST] => from-first-principles.ca
            [HTTP_CONNECTION] => Keep-Alive
            [PATH] => /usr/local/sbin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/sbin:/usr/bin:/sbin:/bin:/snap/bin
            [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => 
            [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache
            [SERVER_NAME] => from-first-principles.ca
            [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.0.0.189
            [SERVER_PORT] => 443
            [REMOTE_ADDR] => 3.236.98.69
            [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/from-first-principles.ca/public_html
            [REQUEST_SCHEME] => https
            [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => 
            [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/from-first-principles.ca/public_html
            [SERVER_ADMIN] => webmaster@localhost
            [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/from-first-principles.ca/public_html/abal.php
            [REMOTE_PORT] => 34222
            [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1
            [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.1
            [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET
            [QUERY_STRING] => 
            [REQUEST_URI] => /abal.php
            [SCRIPT_NAME] => /abal.php
            [PHP_SELF] => /abal.php
            [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1623995204.707
            [REQUEST_TIME] => 1623995204
        )

    [assist] => 
    [element] => header_top
    [scrollbar] => overflow:auto;
    [ip] => 3.236.98.69
    [live] => 
    [email] => info@from-first-principles.ca
    [base_url] => http://www.from-first-principles.ca/
    [show] => y
    [dbci] => mysqli Object
        (
            [affected_rows] => 0
            [client_info] => mysqlnd 7.4.3
            [client_version] => 70403
            [connect_errno] => 0
            [connect_error] => 
            [errno] => 0
            [error] => 
            [error_list] => Array
                (
                )

            [field_count] => 0
            [host_info] => Localhost via UNIX socket
            [info] => 
            [insert_id] => 0
            [server_info] => 8.0.25-0ubuntu0.20.04.1
            [server_version] => 80025
            [sqlstate] => 00000
            [protocol_version] => 10
            [thread_id] => 42033
            [warning_count] => 0
        )

    [mysqli] => mysqli Object
        (
            [affected_rows] => 0
            [client_info] => mysqlnd 7.4.3
            [client_version] => 70403
            [connect_errno] => 0
            [connect_error] => 
            [errno] => 0
            [error] => 
            [error_list] => Array
                (
                )

            [field_count] => 0
            [host_info] => Localhost via UNIX socket
            [info] => 
            [insert_id] => 0
            [server_info] => 8.0.25-0ubuntu0.20.04.1
            [server_version] => 80025
            [sqlstate] => 00000
            [protocol_version] => 10
            [thread_id] => 42039
            [warning_count] => 0
        )

    [dbc] => mysqli Object
        (
            [affected_rows] => -1
            [client_info] => mysqlnd 7.4.3
            [client_version] => 70403
            [connect_errno] => 0
            [connect_error] => 
            [errno] => 1364
            [error] => Field 'comments' doesn't have a default value
            [error_list] => Array
                (
                    [0] => Array
                        (
                            [errno] => 1364
                            [sqlstate] => HY000
                            [error] => Field 'comments' doesn't have a default value
                        )

                )

            [field_count] => 9
            [host_info] => Localhost via UNIX socket
            [info] => 
            [insert_id] => 0
            [server_info] => 8.0.25-0ubuntu0.20.04.1
            [server_version] => 80025
            [sqlstate] => HY000
            [protocol_version] => 10
            [thread_id] => 42040
            [warning_count] => 0
        )

    [file] => /abal.php
    [break] => Array
        (
            [0] => 
            [1] => abal.php
        )

    [pfile] => mail_tasks_due.php
    [ipadr] => 3.236.98.69
    [host_nm] => ec2-3-236-98-69.compute-1.amazonaws.com
    [onderwerp] => Besoeker "abal.php" ec2-3-236-98-69.compute-1.amazonaws.com; Plaaslike tyd: Fri Jun 18 5:46:44 UTC 2021
    [subject] => "" from "" experienced an error on "mail_tasks_due.php". 
    [query] => INSERT INTO first1_principles.browsedata (bladsy_nm, ipadr, host_nm, dtstamp) VALUES ('abal.php', '3.236.98.69', 'ec2-3-236-98-69.compute-1.amazonaws.com', '2021-06-18 05:46:44')
    [result] => 
    [line] => Line 113: 
    [query_error_handling] => INSERT INTO first1_principles.browsedata (bladsy_nm, ipadr, host_nm, dtstamp) VALUES ('abal.php', '3.236.98.69', 'ec2-3-236-98-69.compute-1.amazonaws.com', '2021-06-18 05:46:44')
    [row] => 
    [nr_of_cityblock_matches] => 0
    [locId] => 
    [country] => 
    [region] => 
    [city] => 
    [postalCode] => 
    [latitude] => 
    [longitude] => 
    [metroCode] => 
    [areaCode] => 
    [geodetails] =>               City blocks matched in cityblocks.sql is "0";               locId selected from cityblocks.sql is "";              Country:               Region:               City:               Postal code:               latitude:               longitude:               metroCode:               areaCode: 
    [message] => 
abal.php Line 113:

"INSERT INTO first1_principles.browsedata (bladsy_nm, ipadr, host_nm, dtstamp) VALUES ('abal.php', '3.236.98.69', 'ec2-3-236-98-69.compute-1.amazonaws.com', '2021-06-18 05:46:44')"

mysqli_error():
"Field 'comments' doesn't have a default value";
[ua_exported] => array ( ) [eposAdr] => info@from-first-principles.ca [to] => info@from-first-principles.ca [from] => info@from-first-principles.ca [headers] => Array ( [0] => MIME-Version: 1.0 [1] => Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 [2] => To: Program Administrator [3] => From: All users 24 hour activity ) [files_array] => Array ( [0] => abal.php [1] => abman.php [2] => agri.php [3] => boat.php [4] => bplan.php [5] => busbudget.php [6] => candle.php [7] => chiro.php [8] => coffee_mr.php [9] => contact.php [10] => corp.php [11] => data_analysis [12] => dd.php [13] => embroid.php [14] => farmbuild.php [15] => feas.php [16] => finfor.php [17] => hunt.php [18] => index.php [19] => innercity.php [20] => invic.php [21] => invico.php [22] => janitor.php [23] => labeq.php [24] => labhire.php [25] => lime.php [26] => mang.php [27] => media.php [28] => media_agency.php [29] => midb.php [30] => mine.php [31] => mr.php [32] => myfcast.php [33] => owa_mr.php [34] => prequity.php [35] => propdev.php [36] => pta_doctor.php [37] => quote.php [38] => register.php [39] => retreat.php [40] => rooibos.php [41] => stratplan.php [42] => tilap.php [43] => tissue.php [44] => transport.php [45] => tshare.php [46] => undert.php [47] => valve.php [48] => venture.php ) [dtstamp] => 2021-06-18 05:46:44 [ua] => Array ( ) [headers_str] => MIME-Version: 1.0, Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1, To: Program Administrator , From: All users 24 hour activity [emails_cart] => Array ( [0] => Task Assistant [1] => ) [mailto] => Task Assistant , )


abal.php Line 113:

"INSERT INTO first1_principles.browsedata (bladsy_nm, ipadr, host_nm, dtstamp) VALUES ('abal.php', '3.236.98.69', 'ec2-3-236-98-69.compute-1.amazonaws.com', '2021-06-18 05:46:44')"

mysqli_error():
"Field 'comments' doesn't have a default value";